Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 889.183181 1017.844755 1165.538138 1349.194192 1573.656607 1841.978609 2.191467e+03
2024-10-27 685.010408 837.998188 1030.564068 1296.077693 1661.507571 2160.841354 2.921287e+03
2024-11-03 614.062631 783.595855 1010.130922 1345.107440 1846.697872 2604.399094 3.912679e+03
2024-11-10 556.517461 734.253802 983.417822 1373.810271 2002.248252 3040.933328 5.061755e+03
2024-11-17 511.954327 694.244898 960.207403 1398.052132 2149.318413 3497.863970 6.443538e+03
2024-11-24 465.525900 644.753924 914.497918 1376.364557 2211.188711 3817.926399 7.707969e+03
2024-12-01 436.981125 618.022535 899.098755 1400.047721 2356.123696 4340.127479 9.739566e+03
2024-12-08 416.390953 600.801393 895.821739 1442.745317 2545.358938 5020.434658 1.268518e+04
2024-12-15 392.932344 576.351271 877.166835 1453.661726 2672.159527 5605.961375 1.587174e+04
2024-12-22 367.104020 545.510814 843.950445 1431.432466 2722.439133 6021.121490 1.889582e+04
2024-12-29 351.489319 530.080301 835.664072 1456.205110 2884.074598 6806.248338 2.443004e+04
2025-01-05 328.586875 500.386275 798.788739 1417.514790 2886.631068 7132.312891 2.831275e+04
2025-01-12 307.897140 474.142774 767.933546 1392.082440 2930.202861 7657.929716 3.462627e+04
2025-01-19 285.630513 443.676715 726.763761 1339.785273 2896.023258 7927.232006 4.016548e+04
2025-01-26 278.017592 438.318186 732.200498 1390.243916 3151.552231 9400.255430 5.986502e+04
2025-02-02 268.683414 429.028282 728.947621 1420.452765 3361.087712 10868.761713 8.793057e+04
2025-02-09 259.602491 419.421998 723.974235 1445.750906 3565.565124 12506.746391 1.324926e+05
2025-02-16 246.659817 401.664382 700.774384 1423.084701 3612.482221 13438.053076 1.767549e+05
2025-02-23 239.139529 393.581826 696.725754 1447.847942 3826.940981 15502.477960 2.904950e+05
2025-03-02 233.820320 389.282392 700.137820 1492.515461 4129.668523 18506.508274 5.712065e+05
2025-03-09 226.127191 379.813981 691.546263 1503.938357 4316.431547 21049.818176 1.082622e+06
2025-03-16 216.334023 365.592252 671.364760 1480.678746 4362.225628 22645.865279 1.836715e+06
2025-03-23 210.836167 359.556104 668.782586 1506.600025 4620.623275 26507.782252 5.520998e+06